While the US 10-year yield is likely to trade between the two major levels of 4.137% and 4.622% in the near-term, the downside risk appears to be greater, UOB Group analyst Quek Ser Leang notes.  

Further rebound is not ruled out

“In early June, the US 10-year yield fell sharply, reaching a low of 4.188%, but it did not break through the key support at the bottom of the weekly Ichimoku cloud (4.137%). The 10-year yield then rebounded, but there has been no clear increase in momentum. Note that the weekly MACD remains in negative territory.”

“While further rebound is not ruled out, the mild upward momentum suggests that any advance is highly unlikely to break clearly above 4.622%. Both the descending trendline connecting the highs of October 2023 and April 2024, and May’s high are near this significant resistance level.”