- Friday's mixed US employment data reduced the likelihood of a 50-basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and continues to benefit the US Dollar, acting as a headwind for the Gold price.
- According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders see a 71% chance of a 25-basis-points rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on September 17-18 and a 29% chance of a 50-bp reduction.
- Investors opt to wait for the release of the August US consumer price data on Wednesday, which, along with the Producer Price Index on Thursday, could influence Fed rate cut expectations.
- New York Fed President John Williams said on Friday that inflation expectations remain well anchored and that monetary policy can be moved to a more neutral stance depending on data.
- Separately, Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that maintaining the economy's forward momentum means the time has come to begin reducing rates and that he is open-minded on the size.
- Adding to this, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that officials are finally beginning to catch up with the broader market's view that the time has come for a move on policy rates.
- This suggests that the path of least resistance for the non-yielding XAU/USD remains to the upside and the immediate market reaction to stronger US inflation numbers is more likely to be limited.
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