EBC Markets Briefing | Oil prices are set to fall for a second year

Oi prices steadied on Friday, on course for a weekly loss. The Fed and the ECB both signalled caution over further easing of monetary policy earlier this week, fanning more concerns about global economy.

Softening economic activity could deepen a slowdown in oil demand growth next year. Brent futures prices have shed more than 5% so far this year, setting up a second consecutive annual loss.

China's energy sector faces fresh uncertainty in 2025 with Trump victory raising the prospect of another trade war and potential disruption to Iranian oil exports, said the Sinopec Economics and Development Research Institute.

The state firm also said it expects China's petroleum consumption to peak in 2027 as fuel demand weakens, partly due to the shift towards electric vehicles and the rise of trucks fuelled by LNG.

The oil market is widely expected to be in a surplus next year based on assumption of supply increase and slowing demand. Brent crude prices are forecast to average around $73 a barrel in 2025, according to a Reuters poll.

US crude stocks fell for a fourth straight week in the week ending 13 Dec, the EIA said. But the decline of 934,000 barrels was smaller than analyst forecast of a 1.6 million-barrel drawdown.

Brent crude fell below 50 SMA again and the range breakout we had awaited was yet to come. The falling wedge pattern indicates that a push above the resistance of $74 is on the cards.

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